Higher Ed Isn’t Being Defined by Students; It’s Being Defined by Journalists

It happened again. Another hatchet job on higher education, this one from Business Insider:

‘The world is rapidly evolving’: How Gen Z is rethinking the idea of college

The article begins not with the “idea of college” but with a single and isolated narrative on dropping out and the success that comes with it.[1] The “rethinking” part — from the first sentence — is that the college dropout has a good chance of wealth and status. Why else tell the lead story — regardless of any counter stories or failures — of Rushil Srivastava, who dropped out of UC Berkeley and “got more than $1 million in venture-capital funding.”

Many journalists want to define higher education as a waste, as the modern antithesis of Gen Z. It’s why the article goes on to say that:

Srivastava is one of a soaring number of Gen Zers who has decided to skip college altogether. [emphasis added] Four million fewer teenagers enrolled at a college in 2022 than in 2012.

Higher Ed Reporting Is Rarely Impartial Reporting

Journalists (like lawyers) exist to argue a side … often salacious and frightening, rarely balanced or equal. When it comes to higher education, there’s an unreported offset to the “soaring number of Gen Zers who [have] decided to skip college altogether”; it’s something that’s either ignored or unresearched. According to a February 2023 report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center:

Fall undergraduate enrollment has begun to stabilize in 2022, contracting only by 0.6% or about 94,000 students, compared to fall 2021.

Fall freshman enrollment has begun to rise, increasing by about 97,000 (+4.3%) compared to the previous fall.

So the supposed “soaring” … it’s starting to “unsoar.” This reality goes untold. Even worse, “soaring” is more scare word than fact. It’s a zesty overstatement, a bit of journalistic hyperbole. But not every writer jumps to this extreme. Writing for Forbes (“Take a Real Look at College Enrollment Figures”), Derek Newton doesn’t see “soaring”; he sees something less shocking:

The actual [college enrollment] numbers tell a different story. If you actually look, it’s easy to see that over the past decade enrollment squeezes are isolated to specific sectors and not nearly as dramatic or drastic as the doomsayers say.

Newton points out that net-student loss — 2.4 million over 10 years — can be attributed, for the most part, to community colleges and for-profit colleges, which alone account for about 2.2 million of these students.[2] In terms of decline, the story isn’t as scandalous as the media makes it out to be. In fact, as Newton tells it, the story is more optimistic:

Granted, the big state colleges and universities saw their attendance numbers slowly rise for the first eight years of the past decade, only to see them drop noticeably during Covid, as many students understandably decided that an online college experience was not what they wanted. Still, the net drop [over 10 years] was just 100,000, about 1.2%.

But the losses aren’t the story. The non-losses should be.

In the private, four-year college sector — the very one most pundits said was most at risk — enrollment is actually up slightly. Yes, up. Ten years ago, 3.929 million students went to private four-year colleges. [Education writer Phil] Hill’s estimates this year are for these colleges to enroll 3.971 million. More, in other words.

Despite this data, Gen Z’s mass “rethinking” is often framed as a mass exodus. The proof according to Business Insider … “four million fewer teenagers enrolled at a college in 2022 than in 2012.” But why stop at 2022? Shouldn’t a higher education article published in September 2023 contain specifics about 2023? Specifics such as:

· University of South Carolina begins fall semester, welcomes largest class ever (August 24, 2023) https://www.sc.edu/uofsc/posts/2023/08/usc_welcomes_largest_class_ever.php

· Oklahoma State University celebrates enrollment records as fall semester begins (August 21, 2023) https://news.okstate.edu/articles/communications/2023/osu_celebrates_enrollment_records_as_fall_semester_begins.html

· 21,253 Mountaineers enroll at Appalachian State for fall 2023 — largest enrollment in school history (September 8, 2023) https://today.appstate.edu/2023/09/08/enrollment

· Ouachita’s Fall 2023 enrollment highest in 57 years (September 07, 2023) https://obu.edu/stories/news/2023/09/2023-fall-enrollment.php

· University of Tennessee smashes enrollment record as students return for fall 2023 semester (Aug 23, 2023) https://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/education/2023/08/23/university-tennessee-knoxville-beats-student-enrollment-record-fall-2023/70652395007/

· Mercer to welcome record-breaking freshman class for move-in day (August 15, 2023) https://den.mercer.edu/mercer-to-welcome-record-breaking-freshman-class-for-move-in-day-2/

· University of Arkansas reports record enrollment (September 7, 2023) https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/sep/07/ua-enrollment-highest-ever/

· Texas State welcomes record freshman class for third consecutive year (September 8, 2023) https://news.txst.edu/inside-txst/2023/record-freshman-class-for-third-consecutive-year.html

· Michigan State’s preliminary fall enrollment tops 51,000 students, breaks record (September 8, 2023) https://wwmt.com/news/state/michigan-state-university-enrollment-college-fall-education-students-east-lansing-president-record

· Manhattanville College Reports Record Enrollment Increase in Fall 2023 (September 5, 2023) https://patch.com/new-york/harrison/manhattanville-college-reports-record-enrollment-increase-fall-2023

· Record fall enrollment at Arkansas State University (September 7, 2023) https://talkbusiness.net/2023/09/record-fall-enrollment-at-arkansas-state-university/

Upon closer inspection, the simplification — “a soaring number of Gen Zers [have] decided to skip college altogether” — unravels beneath the weight of both specific stories and current events. It underscores the oddness of using a single dropout’s story to define a generation. “Odd” because a multitude of enrollment stories — all of them successes, all within the last month — define this generation differently.

Reporters Talk about “Tuition” without Unpacking Tuition

For many, the price tag has simply grown too exorbitant to justify the cost. From 2010 to 2022, college tuition rose an average of 12% a year, while overall inflation only increased an average of 2.6% each year. Today it costs at least $104,108 on average to attend four years of public university — and $223,360 for a private university. — Lytton, C. (Sept. 5, 2023). “The world is rapidly evolving”: How gen Z is rethinking the idea of college. Business Insider.

Journalists love citing averages to prove a truth. But an average can be fool’s gold, the linchpin of a lopsided observation. As Charles Wheelan points out in his book Naked Statistics:

The mean is a simple average: the sum of the observations divided by the number of observations (The mean of 3, 4, 5, 6, and 102 is 24). … Now, the clever reader will see that there is sizeable difference between 24 and 5. If, for some reason, I would like to describe this group of numbers in a way that makes it look big, I will focus on the mean.

With this in mind, one can see there’s strategy — not objectivity — in framing college tuition as an average … i.e., “at least $104,108” (four-year public) and “$223,360 (four-year private).” As Wheelan cautions, this describes tuition in a “way that makes it look big.” But the truth is different, and it’s this: while some universities sit above the average, many sit below the average and some sit well below the average. Look past the ambiguous data and the biased language (e.g., “at least”[3]), and you’ll discover the specifics … that for every University of Chicago ($63,801), there’s a more affordable Texas State ($12,220) or Alabama State ($11,068) or University of South Dakota ($9,432).[4]

Moreover, any discussion about tuition is incomplete — and somewhat misleading — without a discussion of scholarships. According to CNBC:

more than $6 billion in scholarships are awarded to college students each year. … Around 1 in 8 college students has won a scholarship. The average award is around $4,200.

Admittedly, the “average award” (according to the data) is not astronomically high (“1 in 8” isn’t higher either). But quoting tuition prices — without acknowledging scholarship money — is merely a half-truth.[5] And there’s more: CNBC’s “average” also suffers from the “makes it look big” problem. Because the “average award” easily conceals universities like:

· Utah Tech — Utah’s most affordable university — where 96% of students are offered scholarships, grants or other financial aid.

· Washington University, where the average need-based scholarship is $58,197.

Higher Education: The Press Loves Fear Over Fairness

In terms of higher education, one can wish that the reporting would be both unbiased and well-researched. A responsible discussion — one fueled by the press and girded by its perceived authority — would offer more than just data that’s 1) cursory and regurgitated or 2) cherry-picked and unbalanced. Sadly, when it comes to higher education, the media — on “average” — likes a true story less and a fear story much, much more.

[1] Granted, there’s more to this article than the first few paragraphs. After a delay, the author eventually describes how some students are “rethinking the idea of college” (and what this means). But that’s not the lead. The intended and pointed lead is one person’s dropout story and that one person’s success. It floats the idea — immediately — that everyone’s “rethinking” is an anti-college/dropout rethinking, and that this rethinking — which is “soaring” — will result in a seven-figure win. Sanitized and told in a vacuum, this single success story leaves unspoken 1) every college dropout who’s failed (of which there are many), 2) every “ordinary” dropout (How many dropouts earn a run-of-the-mill salary vs. “$1 million in venture-capital funding”?) and 3) the specific sacrifices and failures that precede any dropout’s success (Is it typical for “$1 million in venture-capital funding” to fall — without pain or struggle — into the lap of a college dropout?).

[2] Newton cites data from education writer Phil Hill. Of course, everyone should investigate Hill’s data … we, as readers, should never take “reported” data at face value. But if Hill’s positive data is put to the test, the same standard must apply to any and all negative data cited by other publications.

[3] “At least” is defined as “not less than; at the minimum.” To describe the college tuition “average” as “at least” is to imply that 1) there is no less than, and/or 2) it is the minimum. Consequently, the term “at least” is a biased word that quietly sweeps “less than” — i.e., any tuition prices that are below average — under the rug.

[4] Here, someone might try to shift the story from “tuition” to the bigger boogeyman “student debt.” However, that’s not what the author is talking about. Her argument is built solely from tuition “on average” as a motive for “skipping college altogether.” Consequently, debt is not — and cannot — be a factor because the hypothetical skippers never get that far.

Regardless, the debt argument often suffers from the same “averages” flaw as the tuition argument. In February, CNN reported:

In the 2020–2021 academic year, the College Board found that 51% of students who graduated from public four-year institutions left with federal debt averaging more than $21,000 per person.

It’s one thing to say “51% of students left with federal debt in excess of $21,000” … that means “everyone.” But it’s entirely different to say “51% of students left with federal debt averaging more than $21,000 per person.” At first blush, the reader will easily think that 51% of college students — all of them — have $21,000 in debt. But that’s not the case. According to the wording, this is merely the average per person for the 51%; thus, within the majority, some average “more than” $21,000 in debt and some average “less than” $21,000 in debt. But there’s something else that goes unspoken — what of the other 49%? What is their average debt per person? It’s a number that’s important to the story but a number that’s conveniently omitted.

And there’s this too … college loan debt is often framed as an amorphous blob, a faceless, all-encompassing nightmare. In this context, college loan debt is both a pandemic and the universal suffering of everyone. The idea is to make loan debt a ubiquitous devil, even if many debtors don’t experience it this way:

The population with student loan debt is divided into three categories: individuals who are pursuing or have received graduate degrees that generally have high financial returns in the labor market (e.g., law and medical degrees); individuals who completed a bachelor’s or associate’s degree in a high-return field and usually have few problems paying off their debt; and the “crisis” group — a smaller group of individuals who enrolled in programs with low returns, or who failed to finish their degrees. Individuals in the “crisis” group frequently leave college with the same or worse job prospects as when they started and therefore struggle to repay their student loans. Though the “crisis” group indeed faces many financial hardships, they make up the minority of those who have student loan debt in the country. — Is the “Student Loan Crisis” really a crisis? — The College of Arts & Sciences at Texas A&M University. (2019, October 1).

[5] In another Business Insider article, James S. Murphy correctly and clearly points out that:

College isn’t as expensive as you think. Yes, costs at elite schools like Harvard are staggeringly high — but very few students at four-year colleges actually pay the full list price for tuition, fees, room, and board. At most private colleges and some public schools, the list price is more fiction than reality — a fiction designed to squeeze as much money as possible out of wealthy students and their parents. Think of it as a sticker price on a car lot. What the dealer is asking for isn’t what you’re likely to wind up paying. You’ll haggle for a lower price — and drive off thinking you got a deal.

Grants create a gap between the sticker price (what the college professes to charge) and the net price (what students actually pay). Over the past 15 years, the gap has grown. At public colleges, the average list price has grown to over $23,000, but the net price has remained fairly flat, at about $14,000. At private colleges, meanwhile, the list price has ballooned to $53,000, while the net price has actually gone down, to less than $29,000.